The lessons of history

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. George Orwell showed remarkable prescience in his dystopian book 1984 (written in 1948): ‘Not merely the validity of experience, but the very existence of external reality was tacitly denied by their philosophy. The heresy of heresies was common sense.’

Ours is an era where common sense is flatly denied. There are facts and there are ‘alternative facts’. Lies become truth and truth is drowned by the voices of hatred and vilification.

Sound familiar?

Russian-American biologist Peter Turchin is a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology, anthropology, and mathematics at the University of Connecticut. He uses complexity science software to find patterns in large historical datasets. In 2010 he predicted that mounting political instability would peak in the US and Western Europe in the 2020s.

The Strauss-Howe Generational Theory, introduced by William Strauss and Neil Howe, describes the cyclical nature of history, defining generations and identifying recurring patterns leading to "turnings." They predict we are currently in the midst of the 'fourth turning', marked by crisis and anticipated to extend until 2030, with the 2020s as the pivotal decade. The last 'fourth turning' in American history was in the 1930s with the Depression and then World War II.

What are you paying attention to?